10 October, 2013
Construction, commodities and increased consumer demand drive truck sales
At the end of the third quarter of 2013, it
has become clear that an increase in consumer spending on daily commodities and
fast moving goods, are some of the key factors driving the growth in the South
African truck market.
According to a market analysis done by UD
Trucks Southern Africa, sales in this segment of the market have grown an
average of 37.5% on a year-on-year basis.
As part of its analysis, UD Trucks divide the
industry into around 40 segments, and of these, 29 have shown growth ranging
from 11 to 91 percent year-on-year, while the declining segments logged a
decline of between 12 and 96 percent. (* A detailed breakdown of these segments is
available on request.)
The construction industry constitutes four
of these growth segments and together they have grown on average 40.2%, which
to us is a clear indication that a number of infrastructural developments are
happening perhaps quite unnoticed," said Jacques Carelse, managing director of
UD Trucks Southern Africa. "With the
country's Gross Domestic Product growth prediction reduced to around 2% just earlier
this week, the truck industry is certainly bucking the trend."
When looking at the latest figures released
by the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa
(Naamsa) and Associated Motor Holdings (AMH) at the end of September, the local
truck market has grown by 9.91% on a year-to-date basis, totalling 22 607
Digging a little deeper into the market
segments, commodities from example mining, are showing moderate growth relevant
to the typical product used to transport these with, averaging a growth rate of
around 27%. Manufacturing-related
transport is also showing similar growth.
"It is clear that niche and specialist
products are declining, with public transport down approximately 8.61%," said
Breaking down the performance of the new
truck market even further, September YTD year-on-year sales in the Medium
Commercial Vehicle segment increased by 13.10% to 8 549 units, while sales in
the Heavy Commercial Vehicle segment grew by 8.00% units to 3 943 units. The Extra Heavy Commercial Vehicle segment
increased sales by 9.80% to 9 706 units, while Bus sales were 8.61% down to 785
Looking at the industry forecast for the
remainder of the year, Rory Schulz, UD Trucks' general manager of corporate
planning and marketing, said that if the current growth continues, the South
African truck market should end the year at around 29 000 units.
"However, we believe the first signs of a
correction are becoming evident," said Schulz.
"On a month-to-month basis, September sales were 13.51% down on August
2013's figures, to 2 426 units, and the year-to-date growth rate during
this time came down from 10.3% to 9.1%.
Although we believe it is also due to the
cyclical nature of the industry, we anticipate that the impact of the
industry-wide industrial action could also start affecting the market during
the next couple of months."
If this happens, Schulz said that UD Trucks
believes that despite the industry's creditable performance so far this year, a
final figure of around 28 000 units is more likely.
Contact: UD Trucks Southern Africa (Pty) Ltd