20 February, 2019
Africa's first Earth system model to provide African-derived projections of climate change
For the first time, the sixth
assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due for
release in 2019, will contain African-derived projections of future global
climate change. The projections will be made possible by a new
coupled climate model, which is being developed through collaborative research
between the CSIR and Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
coupled model incorporates the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere and the
oceans to enable accurate and more realistic climate projections over Africa.
The multidisciplinary effort is driven by CSIR experts in the fields of global
change, high-performance computing and modelling and digital science.
In 2017, the CSIR
became the first institute in Africa to register for the sixth phase of the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project formally. The CSIR registered with a full
variable resolution Earth system model.
The reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change assess the evidence of climate change that has occurred to date; combine
climate change projections obtained from all leading climate change
institutions globally and convert the information collected into a set of
plausible climate futures.
The CSIR's investment in the development of the
model is aimed at informing the country's adaptation strategies for climate
change. Projections generated by the CSIR have informed the Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions that South Africa has submitted to the 21st Conference
of the Parties of the United Nations Federation Convention on Climate Change
directly. The models have also informed the national communication on climate
change of South Africa.