Apocalypse Awaits
Given that this article will focus intensely on the topic of fire, it is opportune that I open with a reminder of the fire triangle and how it functions.
For Fire to exist, it needs Fuel, Heat and Oxygen. If you take away or reduce any of those three elements, then you can take away or reduce the fire.
In thinking about fire and having had firsthand experience of the September 2023 apocalyptic, two week long fire, that occurred in the NCT Richards Bay woodchip mill complex, I have observed that a triangular relationship of influencing factors is generally prevalent, which leads to the premise that an understanding of these triangular inter-relationships may well be the key towards dealing with fire more effectively into the future.
Whilst drawing from this very real apocalyptic event, let’s now move briskly on to something that I believe is an appropriate backdrop to the topic of fire and here I refer to that classic movie, and one of my favourites, called “Apocalypse Now”.
This brilliant movie is set during the Vietnam war and depicts the story of the hunt for an American officer gone rogue. In relation to this article, it’s not really the story that attracts me, but rather the movie title and the fact that a discussion about fire might appropriately change the title borrowed from this epic movie to “Apocalypse Awaits”!
ALLOW ME TO EXPLAIN
The many tragic forestry related fire events over recent months prove that “ Apocalypse” potentially awaits all of us in the Forestry Industry. Fire is real and no matter what we do it will appear and threaten us.
Fire is not going to go away. We need to be ready and engage with it.
We should not fear fire, we should fight it!
THE REAL QUESTION IS …HOW?
Readers with previous military experience or active imaginations would relate to Captain Willard, in “Apocalypse Now”, in the Mekong Delta, on a gunboat on route to find the rogue Colonel Kurtz. He is carefully watching the riverbanks for any signs of enemy activity. He is fully trained, equipped, aware, and knows that there is an enemy out there. He is prepared to engage and is very cautious.
Suddenly … BANG! … The first shot goes off and Capt. Willard’s best laid plans and preparation are rendered useless as he experiences a WTF! moment.
A WTF moment in this stress filled context highlights the three factors of Surprise, Anxiety and Disorientation all occurring simultaneously despite any previous intense preparation, training and expectation. The soldier experiencing them either recovers and acts definitively or despairs and dies!
As foresters or operators within a mill or other forestry related production environment, we will without doubt experience fire related WTF moments into the future. Recovery and definitive action will be required of us. It is therefore worth the time and effort to recap on that which we already know, take on board new insights and equip ourselves to recover fast and act decisively and effectively. None of which I share is new. We all know what needs to be done. The challenge to all of us is to implement religiously that which we already know.
In the lull before fire events, we should focus on the Preparedness triangle. Every soldier worth his or her salt knows that Training, Drills and regular practical Tests form the three corners of Preparedness. As forestry practitioners we must acknowledge that regular and thorough simulation of potential fire situations and reactions thereto will ensure Preparedness. With lack of or poor Training, Drills and Tests, all we can realistically expect is yet another WTF moment!
As Captain Willard’s mission along the Mekong drew close, he ought to have done a Risk Appreciation exercise to best equip his platoon.
Similarly, as foresters knowing that there WILL be a next fire, we are obligated to continually assess Weather patterns, Ground conditions (fuel loads on plantation or factory or depots), and available Capacity (ability to meet and fight fire).
Poor insight into any one of these three critical factors lowers Risk Appreciation, which could lead to a devastating enemy ambush being in the form of Vietcong in the case of Captain Willard, or a threatening fire outbreak in our case.
How many fires could the industry have possibly prevented in the past had we probed these three critical factors more diligently at the time?
ARE WE DOING ENOUGH RISK APPRECIATION?
There are no easy or comfortable answers to these questions, but in my opinion, they are worth continual and serious consideration going forward.
We need to know our own limitations. Every soldier knows that they are not invincible. The trick really lies in making yourself as small a target as possible and being as ready for action as you can be.
Readiness requires soldiers on a mission to surround themselves with Capable and available personnel. Such personnel to be armed or equipped with the Appropriate Equipment and the personnel so equipped need to be available and On Site. Similarly, the Forest Industry, representing massive assets, must be in a constant state of Readiness.
ARE WE REALLY IN SUCH A READY STATE?
Perhaps one way of answering this critical and uncomfortable question is for each of us to apply the Decision Accuracy tool in our own sphere of influence.
Are our tactical decisions being taken by Competent Persons, properly Delegated to take the decision, using proven Intuition/Experience and Caution?
If any of these elements are lacking, then the accuracy or integrity of the final decision will certainly be lacking, and mistakes can occur.
Next time you take decisions as to when or when not to burn, whether you should have people on standby, what equipment to buy, or anything else for that matter, consider using this triangle and ensure that you cover all bases. Captain Willard certainly needs to use it prior to making the decision to patrol or attack an area. There is a lot at stake and a wrong decision can have immense repercussions. When the attack occurs, and Capt. Willard draws fire or the fire in your plantation or mill appears …
Willard can run or he can call his points-man closer, determine the imminent threat, order his sergeant to direct fire into the threat and his Lieutenant to monitor and co-ordinate. He has effectively Strategised, assumed Command and ensured Supervision using an array of available and Ready Resources.
As soldiers or foresters, we must not try and do everything ourselves when STUFF happens!
Delegate authority and invest in time to strategise and assess continuously. Ensure constant capable supervision over all key operations.
It is imperative that we respond effectively against the enemy in whatever form it manifests and maintain full control.
Capt. Willard’s actions illustrate that Effective response in a fire fight with a human or natural enemy requires Reach, Rate or volume and regularly Refilled Resources. Without these elements your response is going to be muted.
We need to deliver our ordinance or water over an appropriate distance with sufficient volume to douse the enemy’s strength. It is also imperative to have access to refills or replenished resources in whatever form required…fresh ammo boxes or unlimited water reservoirs.
Contemplate these elements and make sure you have them in place…all the time!
As the battle rages on you need to Sustain the pressure against the enemy. Often overlooked, for instance, is the element of adequate Rations specifically in a prolonged battle. Equally important is to be disciplined and to Rest and Rotate personnel.
Tired people don’t make heroes. A huge lesson learnt during our NCT fire was the value of Remedial items. Medical items such as eye drops and headache powders, energy supplements, sweet treats, provision of ablutions and quite importantly the importance of a change of socks! Capt. Willards men would have relished fresh socks after two weeks in the swamp.
Understanding what you are dealing with is critically important. Take the time to look at the battle from a tactical perspective, Monitor what is happening, Record observations continually and Report important information to those who need it.
YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND THE BATTLE TO OWN IT!
Claiming Ownership of the battle positions you to be able to Predict its further path, to Protect yourself and assets and most importantly Warn neighbours and stakeholders of any inbound risks.
Ownership creates responsibility and accountability and thereby the best possible responses.
Once having subdued the enemy or completed the mission, foresters, like soldiers, should transition into a period of Position Strengthening. Post-fire is the exact time to strengthen your position because there will be another attack or fire.
During this lull, we have the opportunity to reflect and conduct a Post-mortem, Repair that which went wrong and Re-group resources, personnel and procedures.
Failing to do any of this post-fire, merely places us in a comparatively weakened position when dealing with the next fire. Going forward post-fire, our primary focus should be on Prevention by which we need to explore ways to Re-Engineer our defenses and approach, we need to prioritise the Mitigation of weak areas, and we need to definitely Share lessons learnt as far and wide as is possible.
The Forest Industry, in my opinion, does not spend nearly enough time and effort on this one! Retrospective introspection is key to better success in the future!
SO, THE CIRCLE WILL INEVITABLY CONTINUE…
In the true sense of “Apocalypse Awaits”, Capt. Willard will move from mission to mission knowing that risk is omnipresent. The forestry industry will go from fire to fire knowing that its occurrence will never be totally eradicated.
What we both do have in our grasp however, if only we take the time to draw from past events and prepare and invest accordingly, is the definitive ability to convert “Apocalypse Awaits” into… ”Apocalypse Deferred”.
Source: Forestry In Focus (Page 10 – 13)
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