Climate Brief for the SA Forestry Sector
Seasonal Outlook
As the cooler weather sets in, winter 2025 has officially arrived. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, which is expected to persist through the winter. Nevertheless, the influence of ENSO is negligible over the South African winter.
For most of the country, the expected minimum and maximum temperatures during the winter season are likely to be a little higher than the long-term seasonal averages; however, certain areas in the southern coastal regions may experience lower than average temperatures.
The regions that are anticipated to receive rainfall over this period are restricted to the southwest of the country, along with the southern and eastern coastal areas. From mid-winter until early spring the outlook indicates above-normal rainfall over the eastern coastal areas, while the southwest is projected to receive above-normal rainfall during mid-winter, shifting to below-normal levels later in the season as we head into spring.
Effects on Forestry
Due to the recent summer rains linked to the La Niña phenomenon, parts of the country have experienced lush vegetation growth spurred by increased rainfall. While above-normal rainfall usually has a beneficial effect on plant growth, increased understory herbaceous growth combined with warmer conditions may result in higher fuel loads from accumulated biomass which then present as a wildfire hazard. These elevated fuel loads affect fire dynamics and ecosystem management, leading to more intense and faster-spreading fires, especially during dry periods following the wet season.
In the winter rainfall regions, the anticipated benefits of higher than average rainfall are likely to be countered by the impact of elevated temperatures. For areas which are experiencing protracted dry conditions, such circumstances may lead to a further reduction in water levels due to evapotranspiration processes. This could worsen the existing challenges faced by the forestry sector within Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape, as these regions continue to suffer from the effects of recent drought.
Water availability problems and reduced soil moisture content are potential consequences related to prolonged dry conditions and below-normal rainfall in the south-western regions. Thus, appropriate water conservation practices should be followed in these regions and planting schedules carefully planned.
Actions for the Forestry Sector
As wildfire hazard remains a concern for the commercial forestry sector, current fire protection practices should be closely followed to ensure that risk assessment, fuel load reduction, fire breaks, and early fire detection are all implemented and maintained correctly.
Written By: Caroline Hardy, Yolandi Ernst, Mary Scholes & Ronald Heath
Source: Forestry In Focus
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