Post: Softwood Lumber Outlook 2030: Turbulence, Trade Shifts, and New Opportunities

January 14, 2026

Softwood Lumber Outlook 2030: Turbulence, Trade Shifts, and New Opportunities

Global outlook 2025-2030

Softwood lumber markets globally are emerging from several years of weak demand and now face new trade restrictions that could dramatically reshape global trade. U.S. import tariffs, a property crisis in China, and war in Europe all add to uncertainty in the years ahead. This report provides a thorough overview of recent market developments, perspectives on key trends shaping future market evolution, and forecasts and scenarios for global demand, supply, and trade.

Contents

1. Introduction: Global market overview 2000-25
• Market size and growth by region
• End-use applications and demand drivers
• Production by region, international trade and pricing

2. Regional dynamics

2.1 United States
• Market segments, demand drivers, outlook for demand
• Impact of import tariffs, domestic supply potential
• Outlook for demand, supply and trade

2.2 Canada
• US trade dispute, impact of tariffs on cost position in US
• Outlook for harvests, lumber production, investment

2.3 Europe
• Market segments, demand drivers, outlook for demand
• Forest resource constraints, lumber supply potential
• Exports, outlook for demand, supply and trade

2.4 China
• Market segments, construction crisis and outlook
• Demographic headwinds, changing economic structure
• Outlook for domestic supply, log and lumber imports

2.5 Other regions
• Demand outlook, with a focus on MENA and Asia
• Supply outlook, with focus on Russia, LatAm, Oceania

3. Global market outlook 2025-30
• Macro-economic outlook by region
• Global demand and supply forecast by region (base case)
• Key uncertainties linked to potentially softer / tighter market
• Scenarios; e.g., US tariffs, Ukraine rebuild, China recovery, Europe supply constraints

Example exhibits

Questions the report helps answer:
• How will the new US import tariffs impact the US, Canada and global markets?
• What is the outlook for China’s struggling construction sector?
• When will growth return to US and European lumber demand?
• Can Europe increase lumber production and export when demand growth returns?
• What is happening with Russia’s industry, with limited access to global markets?
• What would an end of the war in Ukraine mean for European lumber markets?
• Beyond China, what emerging markets have strong growth potential?
• How will the global supply and demand balance evolve in 2025-2030?

Who the report is most relevant for:
• Sawmill owners / operators globally.
• Lumber buyers, including construction, packaging and furniture manufacturers.
• Lumber traders and wholesalers.
• Forest owners and investors globally.
• Pulp, panel and pellet industries using sawmill residues.
• Suppliers of sawmill equipment and technology.
• Analysts, consultants, financial institutions and industry associations.

Example exhibits